Monday, January 18, 2016

5 reasons a 2007-style real estate meltdown is unlikely now

My website: www.sandralew.com

The housing market is on much more solid footing. Real estate has been a preference for investors seeking a safe haven for money they won't need for at least ten years. There are so many positive factors in favor of the housing market. Low interest rates, solid stable mortgage market, help for first time home buyers, lower oil prices, and record breaking job growth.

5 reasons a 2007-style real estate meltdown is unlikely now

Published: Jan 10, 2016 10:26 a.m. ET by Daniel Goldstein


When it comes to investing in the stock market, you may lose your shirt, but you probably won’t lose your home. In fact, when the equity market gets rough, real estate tends to be a life raft for investors seeking safety.

“Real estate is Americans’ preferred investment for money that they won’t need for at least 10 years and that hasn’t changed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst with New York-based Bankrate.com. “Nervous investors always look to real estate rather than shy away from it in times of volatility.”

While stocks around the globe are off to a rough start in 2016, it doesn’t necessarily mean déjà vu all over again, at least when it comes to a repeat of the real estate tumble that began in 2007 but accelerated sharply following the 2008 rout of the equities market, when home prices in late 2011 were down more than 20% from their peak in spring of 2007.

Here’s why you shouldn’t be panicking if you’re looking to buy or sell a home:

Interest rates should stay low
With the latest bout of declining equities, the pace of further Federal Reserve rate increases is likely to slow, according to Kevin Finkel, senior vice president of Resource America Inc. REXI, -4.94%  , a real-estate investment trust in Philadelphia. “It would take a lot more than the volatility we’re seeing now for them to get knocked off the current course of raising rates, but will they slow down [coming rate hikes]? Probably.”

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point last month, the first time since 2006, but minutes from the Dec. 15 to Dec. 16 meeting showed that not all of the bankers were completely on board with the initial rate hike, despite the unanimous vote, because of concerns over inflation being less than expected.

The Fed isn’t “chomping to follow up last month’s rate hike as early as this month, or possibly even in March unless the economy, and possibly inflation, shows more spunk than shown recently,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

While the refinancing boom has slowed, that’s only because the majority of Americans who could refinance to a fixed rate have already done so, so the impact of “rate-shock” when short-term adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) readjust will be minor compared with what happened between 2007 and 2012, when many Americans could no longer afford their new housing payments and defaulted.

Currently, despite an increase in bank repossessions rising almost 60% in November 2015 compared with a year earlier, the percentage of loans in foreclosure nationally is the lowest level since 2007, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosures reached a peak of 4.6% in 2011 at the height of the real estate bust.

“The recent rise in bank repossessions represents banks flushing out old distress rather than new distress being pushed into the pipeline,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of Irvine, Calif.- based RealtyTrac, a real-estate research company.

There’s less risk of a new mortgage bubble
Unlike the 2005 to 2012 mortgage meltdown, when so-called liar loans and exploding ARMs flooded the market, the subsequent pullback in credit may have been overly tight, but it does mean in 2016 there are fewer real estate bubbles waiting to pop. While it’s true there are markets that have seen incredibly inflated real-estate values such as San Francisco and New York, it’s not fueled by unsustainably loose credit standards.

“The changes that have taken place over the past five to seven years have built a more stable foundation” in the mortgage industry, said Michael McPartland, a managing director and head of investment finance for North America at Citigroup’s C, -6.41%   private bank. “There just aren’t a lot of the exotic products like interest-only [loans] and super-high loan-to-value [mortgages],” he said. “If things slow down, there will be a contraction, but not a pop.”

McPartland says it may be harder for borrowers to afford a 20% down payment and monthly interest payments that are principal and interest, instead of just interest-only, but the flip side is increased home equity (the national average is 30% equity), so home buyers are less likely to leave the keys on the counter and walk away if things go bad. Foreclosure starts in July of just over 45,000 were the lowest level since November 2005, nearly a 10-year low, according to RealtyTrac.

Foreclosure starts in November 2015 of just over 36,000 were the lowest level since December of 2005, near a 10-year low, according to a Dec. 10 report from real estate data firm RealtyTrac. “What we can expect is for foreclosures to continue falling as banks clear through their backlog of inventory,” Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, told RealtyTrac last month.

Help for first-time home buyers
Last year, the Federal Housing Administration began reducing mortgage insurance premiums on loans by an average of $900 a year, in an effort to nudge first-time home buyers and millennial borrowers who might not have much cash for a down payment to finally enter the housing market.

The effort appears to have worked, with FHA loans jumping to 23% of all financed purchases in the second quarter of 2015, up from 19% a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac data. The FHA and other federal moves to increase credit, along with a strengthening economy, may just help boost the market for new mortgages in 2016 as much as 10% over last year despite the increase in interest rates, Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in December.

Those other federal moves include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac making lower down payment loan options available to more borrowers. In 2014, the agencies began to buy loans with just a 3% down payment, or 97% loan-to-value ratio. Fannie Mae also announced in 2015 that it would allow income from a non-borrower household members to be considered as part of a loan applicant’s debt-to-income ratio. That could help some borrowers, who might have family members on Social Security or disability living with them, or a renter in a basement apartment, to boost their income levels and help them qualify for a loan.

Lower oil prices
At the end of 2008, gasoline prices, which had risen to a record $4 a gallon nationwide that summer, had crashed to under $2 a gallon. In that case, the cheap gas (and diesel) wasn’t a good thing, as the worldwide economy was shuddering to a halt.

While China’s economy is still contracting, the U.S. economy isn’t, so the lowest gas prices since 2009, with the national average now under $2 a gallon, are likely to help the housing market.
“The continuing drop in gas prices is freeing up valuable disposable income,” says Resource America’s Finkel, which can help Americans absorb higher rent payments, or move up to a more expensive property.

Job growth
While jobs typically are a lagging indicator of an economic downturn, the U.S. has had a slow but steady rate of job creation for the past five years. Even with weakness seen during the summer, job gains in 2015 will top 2.5 million, making it the second-best calendar year for U.S. job growth in this millennium, after last year’s 3.1 million. The last time more jobs were created in a two-year period was at the height of the dot-com boom, in 1998-1999.

“The economy continues to create jobs, and the quality of jobs being created has improved as the economic recovery has progressed, with professional and business services leading the way,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This is indicative of an economic recovery that is sustainable.” And while in this economy, wages have been slow to recover, and it’s been a challenge to get long-term unemployed Americans who no longer count in the official jobless statistics to return to the job market, the job growth has been good enough to boost the housing sector and lure millennial borrowers off the fence.

“If wage growth materializes in a broader way, this will be the catalyst for many existing homeowners to put their homes on the market and finally look for the move-up buy, boosting housing and alleviating the inventory shortage,” McBride said.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-a-2009-style-real-estate-meltdown-is-unlikely-now-2015-08-25?mod=realtor

Monday, November 16, 2015

The most expensive housing market is...

My website: www.sandralew.com

My old stomping grounds where I grew up in the bay area made the list as one of the most expensive housing markets in the country.  With increasing demand for housing especially up in silicon valley I predict it to further increase even more as demand continues to outpace supply.

The most expensive housing market is...

newport beach 

Newport Beach, Calif., is the most expensive housing market in the country.

A piece of the American Dream can cost anywhere from $75,000 to $2.3 million. It all depends on where you live.

Newport Beach, California, is the priciest place to live with the average list price for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom home at $2,291,764, according to a new report from Coldwell Banker Real Estate.

The average listing price for a four-bedroom, two-bathroom home nationwide is $302,632, but buyers can snag one for under $135,000 in all 100 of the most affordable markets. At the other end of the spectrum, the 28 most expensive markets have an average listing price of at least $1 million, the report found.

In Cleveland, Ohio, which is the most affordable market, the average sale price is $74,502 -- 30 times less expensive than a home in Newport Beach.

When it comes to affordability, Middle America dominates with 45% of the most affordable markets located in the Midwest.

"Many of these markets were the very first to go into a housing correction," said Budge Huskey, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate. "These areas have had a long way to recovery, they are still doing so."

Though half of the 100 most expensive housing markets in the U.S. are located in California, it's still not the most expensive state to buy a home. That honor goes to Hawaii, followed by Massachusetts, according Huskey.

While the booming tech industry caused home prices to explode in many areas in California, especially in and around Silicon Valley, Huskey pointed out many markets are still affordable in the state. "You can drive 30 to 45 minutes outside these areas and be in a very different price point."

Here are the most and least expensive housing markets in the U.S., according to Coldwell Banker:
Most Expensive: 

Newport Beach, Calif. ($2,291,764)
Palo Alto, Calif. ($2,066,600)
Saratoga, Calif. ($1,979,218)
Cupertino, Calif. ($1,659,297)
Los Gatos, Calif. ($1,569,615)
Arcadia, Calif. ($1,541,406)
San Mateo, Calif. ($1,463,455)
Sunnyvale, Calif. ($1,447,411)
Orono, Minn. ($1,384,270)
Redwood City, Calif. ($1,367,350)

Least Expensive:
Cleveland, Ohio ($74,502)
Riverdale, Ga. ($79,223)
Wilkes-Barre, Pa. ($79,480)
Detroit, Mich. ($81,616)
Alma, Mich. ($90,523)
Gloversville, N.Y. ($91,406)
Euclid, Ohio ($92,550)
Hastings, Fla. ($95,267)
Flint, Mich. ($95,482)
Lithonia, Ga. ($95,750)

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/10/real_estate/most-and-least-expensive-housing-markets/index.html?iid=Lead


 

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Luxury-Home Developers’ Latest Pitch: Unspoiled Nature

Visit my website: www.sandralew.com

New demand for living around areas surrounded by unspoiled nature. The conservation easement has exploded in popularity as it protects land from development. The deed to the land needs to be protected in perpetuity. These high end homes fuel the desire for homeowners to help with nature preservation along with gaining their own benefits of living in it as well. A price worth paying for many. It's a win win for all.

Luxury-Home Developers’ Latest Pitch: Unspoiled Nature

Forget golf: A growing number of high-end home communities are being built around large nature preserves 

The living room, with steel beams, in the McMahons’ living room. The couple was drawn to Spring Island in part for its 1,200 acre nature preserve.

Some developers are dedicating part of their land to nature preserves, hoping to draw in people with a passion for the environment and the outdoors. 




 

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

California housing will get even less affordable, UCLA forecast says

My website: www.sandralew.com

 While California housing keeps getting less affordable it is only going to get worse. Construction is unable to keep up with demand. Even with some units set aside for affordable housing demand is not able to keep pace. Total employment growth continuing to rise is good news with a drop in unemployment rates predicted but also directly affects a greater housing demand for the area. This drives up home prices.

California housing will get even less affordable, UCLA forecast says

Posted:

Housing in California — already considered unaffordable to many — will become even less affordable over the next two years, with construction unable to keep up with demand, according to a UCLA economic forecast released Monday.

UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg wrote in his forecast that government agencies need to reconsider their policies surrounding affordable housing if they hope to make a dent in the problem.

“The economics are clear,” he wrote. “When affordable housing is provided, say by requiring developers to have a fixed percentage of their new units ‘affordable,’ then the demand for that housing will be in excess of the supply.”

Nickelsburg added that “the policy itself recognizes that building constraints -- natural or regulatory -- will not permit a sufficient number of new homes to be built to satisfy the demand at affordable levels.

“This being the case, affordable housing policy needs to be explicit about who the housing is for,” he wrote. “For example, one might advocate affordable housing so that teachers in public schools can purchase housing that would otherwise be difficult for them to acquire.”

Nickelsburg said the typical response of “just build more housing” is unrealistic since such a move would require major changes in zoning codes, environmental requirements and building regulations.

“Certainly some of this is happening, particularly along mass transit corridors, but to make a significant impact the changes would have to be quite dramatic,” he wrote. “Realistically, this is not going to happen in the coming few years.”

On an economic front, Nickelsburg predicted total employment growth in California of 2.7 percent this year, 2.2 percent next year and 1.4 percent in 2017. The unemployment rate will drop below 6 percent for the balance of the year, then average 5.2 percent next year and 4.8 percent in 2017.

On the national front, UCLA Anderson director Edward Leamer predicted GDP growth of 2 to 3 percent over the next two years, with a generally healthy economy.

“This comes with an improving labor market, declining unemployment rate and a rising employment to population ratio,” Leamer wrote.

Source: http://www.dailynews.com/social-affairs/20150928/california-housing-will-get-even-less-affordable-ucla-forecast-says
 
 

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

What You Need to Know About the New Mortgage Rules

My website: www.sandralew.com

Improvements to the mortgage application process will allow borrowers more time to understand the entire process with more visibility of actual related costs but may slow the closing process.

What You Need to Know About the New Mortgage Rules 

 

Applying for a home loan soon should get easier and less confusing. That is the goal, at least, of changes to the mortgage application process required by the 2010 Dodd-Frank banking reform act, which finally kick in Saturday.

Clearing up confusion

If you have taken out a mortgage, you know how confusing the process can be. The law has required lenders to reveal in writing the fine points of the loan. But the documents that must be used are hard to understand for anyone who’s not a lawyer or a real estate professional.

Timing has also been a problem. The final details of a mortgage typically have been dumped in borrowers’ laps along with the final loan papers, meaning that, typically, a borrower has to take in the costs and terms of their new mortgage only minutes before signing the papers that commit them to hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt.

Stories of confused borrowers signing complex, risky mortgages they didn’t understand were commonplace at the end of the housing bubble. Congress’ effort to correct that led to a number of changes, including those going into effect now.

Two new disclosure forms

Starting now, lenders will use two new forms to explain the details of their mortgages — a loan estimate (shown here at the CFPB), which must be given to a borrower no later than the third business day after the borrower applies, and a final closing disclosure, which borrowers will receive three business days before a mortgage deal closes.
The two forms look similar, which should help borrowers line up the lender’s initial offer with the final deal, better revealing any bait-and-switch discrepancies in fees, rates or settlement costs.

More time to review the purchase

 

Lenders now will need to give borrowers the closing disclosure form breaking down the final costs and loan details at least three business days before the mortgage papers are signed.

This will give borrowers the time necessary to:
  • Understand all of the loan’s terms and costs.
  • Compare the final product with the offer they received initially.
  • Ask questions about points of confusion.
  • Enlist help from a lawyer, trusted friend or family member.
  • Think about whether they can truly afford the mortgage they are considering and — if not — back out.

Brace for a rocky start

Lenders will need time to adapt to the changes, experts said. Expect that the process may be bumpy at first, said Tammy Felenstein, executive director of sales for Halstead Property in Stamford, Connecticut, talking to The New York Times. She advises borrowers to ask their real estate agents or an attorney for guidance. “Go with a lending institution that has prepared for these changes and knows what they’re doing,” she said.

The process is likely to create longer closing times. Borrowers can keep things moving by organizing their documents early, turning them into the lender quickly and scheduling inspections immediately, advises Diane Evans, the president of the American Land Title Association, in an interview with The Times:
Some real estate agents are planning to write contracts with 45-day closings, instead of 30, Ms. Evans said, adding, “if you’re prepared for a little more time and it takes less, everybody leaves a little happier.”

Source: http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-mortgage-rules/ar-AAf2o3n

 

 


 

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Southland home sales hit a nine-year high; prices up 5.5%

My website: www.sandralew.com

Home prices all time high up 5.5%. Los Angeles County's median home price is $492,000 with sales up 13.5% from a year ago. Most economists still predict continued appreciation but at a slower pace due to the increased cost of housing.

Southland home sales hit a nine-year high; prices up 5.5%

By Andrew Khouri - August 18, 2015

The Southern California housing market is enjoying a summer almost as hot as the weather.

Home sales reached a nine-year high in July, while the median price climbed 5.5% from a year earlier, according a report out Tuesday from CoreLogic.

The data represent a housing market that's picked up steam from a sluggish 2014, as an improved economy gives more families the confidence to buy a home. June sales also were at a nine-year high.

"Much of today's demand stems from job growth, low mortgage rates and a more confident consumer," CoreLogic analyst Andrew LePage said.

The 16.9% increase in sales from July 2014 comes as investors pull back from the marketplace, leaving more breathing room for families.

In July, absentee buyers, who are mostly investors, bought 21% of all homes sold, the smallest share since June 2010. All-cash transactions, often the sign of an investment deal, also fell to 21.7% of sales, the lowest since November 2008.

Real estate agents say some families have jumped into the market given all the talk about a coming rise in interest rates if the Federal Reserve raises its short-term benchmark rate later this year, as expected.

The robust demand pushed sales up in six Southland counties: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura.




The six-county region's median price ticked down 0.9% from June to $438,000. But LePage said such a month-to-month dip is not unusual and probably represents a shift in the mix of homes selling.

Most economists predict continued price appreciation ahead, though at a slower pace than in recent years as families struggle to afford the increased cost of housing. The California Assn. of Realtors expects that by the end of December the median price for a California single-family home will have risen 5.3% in 2015.

Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-july-home-prices-20150819-story.html

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Banks Are Loosening Up on Jumbo Loans

My website: www.sandralew.com

The jumbo loans market is getting bigger with some banks only requiring a 15% down payment for jumbo loans up to $1.5 million.  It's been a 58 percent increase in new loan originations from a year ago and an area of the mortgage market that has recovered more than any other sector since the housing crisis.

Banks Are Loosening Up on Jumbo Loans

As lenders try to capture more of the high-end housing market, J.P. Morgan Chase announced that it's loosening the underwriting standards for issuing jumbo mortgages, those that exceed $417,000 in most parts of the country or $625,500 in pricier areas. The bank is lowering its minimum credit score and down payment requirements for mortgages up to $3 million.

Chase's decision follows similar steps from Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo, and other banks for jumbo mortgage requirements.

As such, the jumbo market is getting bigger. Jumbo originations in the second quarter climbed to an eight-year high of $93 billion – a 58 percent increase from a year ago, according to Inside Mortgage Finance estimates. Jumbo mortgages issued by lenders last year accounted for about 20 percent of all first-lien mortgages, up from 5.5 percent in 2009.

"There's no question that the jumbo market has probably recovered more than any sector of the mortgage market since the housing crisis," says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.
J.P. Morgan plans to lower its minimum FICO credit scores for jumbo mortgages from 740 to 680 for loans on primary single-family purchases, second homes, and some refinances. The bank is also allowing a 15 percent down payment for loans up to $3 million. That is less than other banks such as Bank of America and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. which allow a 15 percent down payment for jumbo loans up to $1 million and $1.5 million, respectively.

The housing recovery has been strong in the higher-priced tier. Existing single-family home sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million rose 21 percent in June from a year prior, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Meanwhile, sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 rose 12.5 percent. Homes priced lower saw sales fall 3 percent.

Source: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2015/08/06/banks-are-loosening-up-jumbo-loans